Flopped full house
Looking for something to blog about I ran across this poll on how to play a flopped full house.
The situation is that you're in late position with a T9 and a flop of TT9, two suited. There are 4 other active players, the UTG had limped preflop, two callers, you called, the BB checked.
Now, on the flop, the UTG bets 5 (it's a 1/2 game), there's two callers, the BB is still behind you. There's plenty of chips. One of the callers has $70, everybody else has a couple hundred, you have everybody covered.
What do you do? The poll gives three options, call, raise a small amount, raise a large amount.
70% say call
25% say small raise
5% say large raise
I think call might be right, but I don't think it's clearcut. It's the first impulse of most players, it's my first impulse.
Aggression in no limit games is often overrated. Passive play often gets more money than aggresive play. But at the same time slowplay is overrated also.
The more I think about it the more I think it's a good chance one of the 3 hands that have already put money in the pot this betting round has a T. If that's the case and they're slowplaying it then a small raise might well get them to come out of the woodwork. A small raise might well have a good shot at getting all the chips in right now against one player with at most 3 outs.
Raising might scare off the flush, straight, and overcard draws. But if somebody else has a T and you're both slowplaying it then I think that might well be as big a disaster as driving off the draws. You aren't likely to get all the chips of a flush draw even if he gets there.
Then again, against another T you can probably get all the chips in on a later street.
In a limit game I think a raise is clearly the right thing. In a no limit game I don't think things are ever that clear.
The situation is that you're in late position with a T9 and a flop of TT9, two suited. There are 4 other active players, the UTG had limped preflop, two callers, you called, the BB checked.
Now, on the flop, the UTG bets 5 (it's a 1/2 game), there's two callers, the BB is still behind you. There's plenty of chips. One of the callers has $70, everybody else has a couple hundred, you have everybody covered.
What do you do? The poll gives three options, call, raise a small amount, raise a large amount.
70% say call
25% say small raise
5% say large raise
I think call might be right, but I don't think it's clearcut. It's the first impulse of most players, it's my first impulse.
Aggression in no limit games is often overrated. Passive play often gets more money than aggresive play. But at the same time slowplay is overrated also.
The more I think about it the more I think it's a good chance one of the 3 hands that have already put money in the pot this betting round has a T. If that's the case and they're slowplaying it then a small raise might well get them to come out of the woodwork. A small raise might well have a good shot at getting all the chips in right now against one player with at most 3 outs.
Raising might scare off the flush, straight, and overcard draws. But if somebody else has a T and you're both slowplaying it then I think that might well be as big a disaster as driving off the draws. You aren't likely to get all the chips of a flush draw even if he gets there.
Then again, against another T you can probably get all the chips in on a later street.
In a limit game I think a raise is clearly the right thing. In a no limit game I don't think things are ever that clear.
Labels: when to raise
posted by Gary Carson at 8:21 AM
3 Comments:
This is a clear one, Gary. You check. What you want to do is get the maximum money in on the flop & turn without raising suspicion so your opponent is committed before there's any warning. It's quite likely the hypothetical T will try to check-raise the turn, and if so you can get two more bets in without showing even pair-level strength. That's much better than getting three bets in representing a T, which is what happens if you raise.
This one is very clear cut given the scenario as described.
I'm always suspicious of calls on a paired board, I don't see where a call eliminates raising suspicion.
It hinges on how the opponents will interpret your behavior. If you've shown any signs of trickiness at all you should probably raise.
If you havn't shown anything to make them think tricky or not tricky they'll probably assume you're going to be tricky with a flopped full house.
The way the OP described the scenario didn't really include anything about specific player tendencies and if they are tricky they'll tend to think you're tricky also. In that case they'll likely discount the possibility you even have a T if you raise.
If the stacks are smaller I'd raise right now for sure. In that case you'll get the flush/straight draws to get their money in on the flop when they might give up if you wait until the turn.
I think it's less clearcut than you think, although when I had to vote to see the poll results I voted check and that's probably what I'd do.
It's not about getting X bets in either, it's about getting stacks in. If you can entice a flush draw to call a small raise now, and make the pot a little bigger, you'll get all their chips if they make the flush, when if the pot stays small you probably won't get more than about 1/2 their stack if they make it.
I do see what you're saying, and I do agree with you somewhat, but only somewhat.
I agree that a call doesn't prevent all suspicion, but if villain holds a T that will make them a lot less nervous, especially if their kicker is good. I can't see any benefit to raising whatsoever unless you can represent a hand they can beat by doing so, which is going to be very tricky. A call on the other hand could represent a draw (not that I would advocate calling with one here, but a lot of people will). The call is definitely less likely to cause suspicion, and the T may bet big to force you off your "draw" next street if the board is a brick which is an added benefit.
I will agree that if stacks are small to the point where you think a T is committed then just raise-push.
As far as getting X bets/raises in vs. stacks, if people are using fairly standard bet sizing they're highly analogous concepts since it will take some number of bets to get in. And I think you'll get the entire stack of a made draw regardless of how you play IF you don't drive them out now or plant the idea you have a full house. A raise may well do that - yet another reason to call.
The analysis very much in favor of calling here. This one's just not close at all.
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