The Raise/Fold sequence
In a previous post I made light of the idea that you should make a habit of coming in for a raise then folding to a re-raise. The particular had someone had suggested doing so with was AQo.
A commenter (DMV) didn't think I was being very bright when I thought you were opening yourself up for being played back at
I thought I'd look at that in a little more detail. I'll use some PokerStove.
Let's just say that AQo is the worst hand you'll make an early postion raise with, with AA you'll push me all in if I re-raise you, with AKs, AQs, AKo, JJ-KK you'll call. You won't be raising with any other hands.
Roughly then, you're response to a re-raise will be re-re-raise 11% of the time, calling 68% of the time and folding 21% of the time.
Let's just pick a number and say I'm re-raising with the top 40% of my hands after I see you raise/fold once.
I have 100% equity those times you fold.
I have 15% equity those times you play back with AA.
I have 31% equity those times you call.
Let's just treat all raises as pot size raises, 1/2 blinds. Ignore rake. You raise to 8, I re-raise to 20, you re-raise to 52. I think I got those at about pot size.
21% of the time I have 100% equity of $11
11% of the time I have 15% equity of $107, and $52 of that I put in.
68% of the time I have 31% equity of $43. and $20 of that I put in.
Okay. You're right. I'm wrong.
But, we can't stop here. We have to find some situation where I'd be right, otherwise the world is out of kilter and we'll all die.
Let's say you'll fold not just with AQo but with any AQ (a player who'll raise/fold with any hand probably doesn't understand how much more powerful suited is than non-suited).
Okay, I ran the numbers for that and it's still not enough, you'd still be right.
I'll concede. You'd have to have a pretty wide range of hands you're raise/folding with to make it worthwhile for someone to play back very frequently.
I just hate it when I make a mistake. I really do.
A commenter (DMV) didn't think I was being very bright when I thought you were opening yourself up for being played back at
You're dead? Why? They are going to start coming over the top of your EP raises with weak hands? Bring it.
I thought I'd look at that in a little more detail. I'll use some PokerStove.
Let's just say that AQo is the worst hand you'll make an early postion raise with, with AA you'll push me all in if I re-raise you, with AKs, AQs, AKo, JJ-KK you'll call. You won't be raising with any other hands.
Roughly then, you're response to a re-raise will be re-re-raise 11% of the time, calling 68% of the time and folding 21% of the time.
Let's just pick a number and say I'm re-raising with the top 40% of my hands after I see you raise/fold once.
I have 100% equity those times you fold.
I have 15% equity those times you play back with AA.
I have 31% equity those times you call.
Let's just treat all raises as pot size raises, 1/2 blinds. Ignore rake. You raise to 8, I re-raise to 20, you re-raise to 52. I think I got those at about pot size.
21% of the time I have 100% equity of $11
11% of the time I have 15% equity of $107, and $52 of that I put in.
68% of the time I have 31% equity of $43. and $20 of that I put in.
Okay. You're right. I'm wrong.
But, we can't stop here. We have to find some situation where I'd be right, otherwise the world is out of kilter and we'll all die.
Let's say you'll fold not just with AQo but with any AQ (a player who'll raise/fold with any hand probably doesn't understand how much more powerful suited is than non-suited).
Okay, I ran the numbers for that and it's still not enough, you'd still be right.
I'll concede. You'd have to have a pretty wide range of hands you're raise/folding with to make it worthwhile for someone to play back very frequently.
I just hate it when I make a mistake. I really do.
Labels: when to call, when to fold, when to raise
posted by Gary Carson at 9:28 AM
4 Comments:
But if your EP range is that restricted, we'll take money off you in other ways.
Well the list of things I don't know about nlhe only grows.
31% the time that you call? What does that mean.
and does this equity really translate into money won? Let's say I raise and then call with JJ from EP. If the flop comes A K 3, I have a big equity edge against smaller pairs like 99. I am probably not going to win the pot either.
The equity is measured against all boards, dmw.
It's easy to find situations in which you have equity but cannot convert it into winning. We all fold the best hand sometimes.
But sometimes the other guy has KK and the flop comes AT3 and he folds to your bet. Do the two cases even out? Maybe, maybe not, but calculating it would surely be painful! So you go with your equity against his range as an approximation of your chances. One thing Gary teaches (I hope I have him right) is that considering your equity as money won can be a mistake (he's not one for EV worship).
Of course, if you get all the chips in, your hot and cold equity is as good a guide to your chances as any against his range, because you can no longer fold the best hand. Don't forget to mix in some fold equity though, because he can still fold his.
Well, good for you to man up and admit you were wrong. Now you need to tackle about 80% of the rest of this site, because your errors are rampant, not localized.
You also need to recognize that you're not even a NL journeyman, let alone a master. I doubt you'd be in the top half of the player pool at the average 5/10 game.
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