Getting crippled with top pair

From a hand history discussed on rgp.

After this hand I was questioned about it. I have put in my thoughts in
from when I was playing the hand. Help me understand where I can improve.
Bet preflop? can you fold to the flop bet?

Grant (Morphy?) and Fell both jumped on me about it

> PokerStars Game #22603082268: Tournament #124719100, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No
Limit - Level III > (25/50) - 2008/12/03 22:37:10 ET
> Table '124719100 1' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
> Seat 1: jimpic79 (3390 in chips)
> Seat 2: charrison100 (4145 in chips)
> Seat 3: bgadams (2250 in chips)
> Seat 4: brewcam (1405 in chips)
> Seat 5: Grant1525 (1690 in chips)
> Seat 6: jpawloski (1530 in chips)
> Seat 7: k1d_qu1ck (960 in chips)
> Seat 8: Porsche_Dan (2855 in chips)
> Seat 9: aakringle (2775 in chips)
> k1d_qu1ck: posts small blind 25
> Porsche_Dan: posts big blind 50
> *** HOLE CARDS ***
> Dealt to charrison100 [Kh Qs]
> aakringle: folds
> jimpic79: folds
> charrison100: calls 50

MP limp to see if I hit

> bgadams: folds
> brewcam: folds
> Grant1525: calls 50
> jpawloski: calls 50
> k1d_qu1ck: calls 25
> Porsche_Dan: checks
> *** FLOP *** [Qd 9d 8s]

pot 250
TP 2K

> k1d_qu1ck: bets 910 and is all-in

Against 3 players I saw this as a steal. I called with my hand given it
was 1/3 my stack and a chance to knock him out. I was thinking A9 A8 two
diamonds or gut shot. No bet preflop from him in the blind made me
discount any pair or A face.

> Porsche_Dan: folds
> charrison100: calls 910

Thought the bet and the call was enough to isolate and that Grant and
Jason would fold.

> Grant1525: raises 730 to 1640 and is all-in

Ummm
Flush draw or straight draw or top pair

> jpawloski: calls 1480 and is all-in

Damn it
Flush draw or straight draw or top pair
One of these 2 has me beat.

> charrison100: calls 730

There was too much in the pot to not call and I was still going to have
1/2 my stack if I lost and that was a chance for a triple elimination.

> *** TURN *** [Qd 9d 8s] [Ad]
> *** RIVER *** [Qd 9d 8s Ad] [7d]

Made his flush. Grant and Jason both having the straight was a shock I
figured one had it and the other had AdXd but like I said with the pot
size and the amount of a call I felt it was justified.

> *** SHOW DOWN ***
> charrison100: shows [Kh Qs] (a pair of Queens)
> Grant1525: shows [Jh Th] (a straight, Eight to Queen)
> Grant1525 collected 320 from side pot-2
> jpawloski: shows [Ts Jc] (a straight, Eight to Queen)
> Grant1525 collected 855 from side pot-1
> jpawloski collected 855 from side pot-1
> k1d_qu1ck: shows [8d 6d] (a flush, Ace high)
> k1d_qu1ck collected 3890 from main pot
> *** SUMMARY ***
> Total pot 5920 Main pot 3890. Side pot-1 1710. Side pot-2 320. | Rake 0
> Board [Qd 9d 8s Ad 7d]
> Seat 1: jimpic79 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
> Seat 2: charrison100 showed [Kh Qs] and lost with a pair of Queens
> Seat 3: bgadams folded before Flop (didn't bet)
> Seat 4: brewcam folded before Flop (didn't bet)
> Seat 5: Grant1525 showed [Jh Th] and won (1175) with a straight, Eight to
Queen
> Seat 6: jpawloski (button) showed [Ts Jc] and won (855) with a straight,
Eight to Queen
> Seat 7: k1d_qu1ck (small blind) showed [8d 6d] and won (3890) with a flush,
Ace high
> Seat 8: Porsche_Dan (big blind) folded on the Flop
> Seat 9: aakringle folded before Flop (didn't bet)

>

From above

> Made his flush. Grant and Jason both having the straight was a shock I
> figured one had it and the other had AdXd but like I said with the pot
> size and the amount of a call I felt it was justified.

Do you understand what you just said?

You thought you were drawing dead but called because the pot was big?

Do you know what zero times a big number is?

You need to pay more attention to position and think of third to act in a nine handed game as third to act in a nine handed game rather than as middle position.

Given the situation (position and stack sizes) a KQo should probably have never been played in the first place.

Top pair with that coordinated flop is not what is meant by "hitting the flop"

So I guess that's three pretty big mistakes.

The Raise/Fold sequence

In a previous post I made light of the idea that you should make a habit of coming in for a raise then folding to a re-raise. The particular had someone had suggested doing so with was AQo.

A commenter (DMV) didn't think I was being very bright when I thought you were opening yourself up for being played back at

You're dead? Why? They are going to start coming over the top of your EP raises with weak hands? Bring it.

I thought I'd look at that in a little more detail. I'll use some PokerStove.

Let's just say that AQo is the worst hand you'll make an early postion raise with, with AA you'll push me all in if I re-raise you, with AKs, AQs, AKo, JJ-KK you'll call. You won't be raising with any other hands.

Roughly then, you're response to a re-raise will be re-re-raise 11% of the time, calling 68% of the time and folding 21% of the time.

Let's just pick a number and say I'm re-raising with the top 40% of my hands after I see you raise/fold once.

I have 100% equity those times you fold.
I have 15% equity those times you play back with AA.
I have 31% equity those times you call.

Let's just treat all raises as pot size raises, 1/2 blinds. Ignore rake. You raise to 8, I re-raise to 20, you re-raise to 52. I think I got those at about pot size.

21% of the time I have 100% equity of $11
11% of the time I have 15% equity of $107, and $52 of that I put in.
68% of the time I have 31% equity of $43. and $20 of that I put in.


Okay. You're right. I'm wrong.

But, we can't stop here. We have to find some situation where I'd be right, otherwise the world is out of kilter and we'll all die.

Let's say you'll fold not just with AQo but with any AQ (a player who'll raise/fold with any hand probably doesn't understand how much more powerful suited is than non-suited).

Okay, I ran the numbers for that and it's still not enough, you'd still be right.

I'll concede. You'd have to have a pretty wide range of hands you're raise/folding with to make it worthwhile for someone to play back very frequently.

I just hate it when I make a mistake. I really do.

Online Poker v. Live Poker

I just read this post on rgp.

If I raise with AQ and get reraised, I'm dumping it, and if there's an EP raise,
I'm probably folding AQ. For me to get burned with AQ, I would need to raise in
EP with AQ and just get called, or, AK raises from MP/LP, and I would call
there.

All I can say is that he must play poker online a lot.

You can get away with playing like that online because most of your opponents are not paying attention at all to any mistakes you're making.

But in live poker games where even the really bad players are paying attention, once you come in for a raise in EP then fold to a re-raise once you've just got a target painted on your forehead. If you do it twice you're dead.

When your top pair is beat

Some players seem to think the only real poker tactic is deception. Their whole game is built around that one tactical ploy. You can save yourself a lot of money by early identification of players whose entire arsenal of poker tactics is built on that singular idea of deception.

I was playing some 1/2 blind no limit last night. The game had a capped buy in of $200.

I'm on the big blind with a Kd 8d, there are 3 limpers and the small blind in the pot and I check preflop.

The flop is a 346, with 2 hearts and a diamond.

Everybody checks.

The turn is 8c. The small blind checks.

I bet $10. One caller. Then the mid-position limper makes it $30. The late position limper folds, as does the small blind.

It's my turn.

What does he have? Is my hand any good? If I'm not best how many outs do I have.

I thought I was drawing dead. What hand could he possibly have that he would've played from mid-position, checked that flop, then raised the turn?

In answering those questions we need to start with what I know about the player. I didn't really know much. I'd just recently arrived at the table and hadn't seen anything noticeable occur in any of the hands I'd watched so far. But this is a live game. I could look at the guy. Stereotypes can be helpful, and this guy fit one poker player stereotype that you don't often see discussed. He looked like a farmer.

He was in his 50's or 60's, wearing a feed store ball cap, tanned, weathered face, and large, rough hands. Casual clothes, neat but not pressed. I've seen that type in cardrooms around Oklahoma, Louisiana, Mississippi, and even Reno. They generally fall into one of two categories, a wild gambler type or a steady but loose and tricky type.

The first type often gets out of line and overvalues his hand and situation. The second type seldom overvalues his hand and seldom gets out of line for more than a minimum bet.

I'm not able to tell which type of farmer I'm looking at by just looking, but the way this hand played out gave a strong clue as to what kind of player he is. If he'd have hit any part of that flop at all you would not have checked the flop, with something like an 86 or even 84 or just a flush draw he'd have bet the flop, pushing the boundaries of his marginal hand. Neither type is likely to raise me on the turn unless they can beat top pair or have a strong draw to beat it.

With a player left behind him the steady but tricky type of farmer would be very likely to have checked that flop with a 75 however.

That's what I put him on. Exactly a 75. I thought I was drawing dead with my top pair. I folded. That early position limper called his raise then called another $40 when a blank face card hit the river. The farmer had flopped the nuts, just as I'd concluded after his turn raise.

I don't think my laydown was particularly special, it's almost never a good idea to call a turn raise with just a pair, but I decided to blog about it because I think my read of that player is a good example of how to combine thoughts about stereotypes and the particular beating pattern of a hand.

This sort of thing is one way that poker math relates to poker psychology. There are separate things but the complementary aspect of the two is more important than either individual view. Poker math and poker psychology serve each other, and you can't really meaningfully apply either of the two approaches without incorporation of the other. The psychology comes in when identifying the stereotype. The mathematics comes in when comparing the betting pattern two the two different possible interpretation of player stereotype of the middle-aged, tractor driving, farmer.

Update: I corrected a minor typo