Fun with Poker Stove
I spent some time this morning just playing around with Poker Stove.
No starting hand is a favorite to beat nine other players. Not a single one. Pocket aces has about a 30% chance of prevailing against a field of 9 random opposing hands.
Of course getting 9-1 on a 30% proposition is a money winner, a very good money winner, but most of the time it’s going to be a loser.
As the field narrows the win percentage of AA grows a lot. According to Poker Stove it will win 85% of the time against a player who plays the top 20% of his hands.
But when Poker Stove says top 20% it means in terms of win percentage against a random hand. That includes things like A9o and A4s, which aren’t considered power houses against someone who’s shown strength or might show strength. Players who’ll call in early position limper with 20% of their hands aren’t likely to be playing A9o.
Here’s the top 20% against a random hand
AA KK QQ JJ TT 99 88 77 66
A9o ATo AJo AQo AKo
KTo KJo KQo
QTo QJo
JTo
T9s
J9s JTs
Q9s QTs QJs
K8s K9s KTs KJs KQs
A4s A5s A6s A7s A9s ATs AJs AQs AKs
What’s the top 20% against a strong hand? First you have to define what we mean by strong hand.
How about the top 5%? The top 5% against a random hand are AA KK QQ JJ TT AKs AKo AQo
I think everybody will agree that’s a collection of strong hands. Some might quibble on the margin, arguing for inclusion of 99 and 88 77 instead of AQo. There are more combinations of AQo than 99, so to replace the same number of hands that are removed by taking AQo out of the mix you need to go as deep as 77.
Against the top 5% that includes AQs AA wins 84.4% percent of the time. But against the top 5% that includes the middle pairs AA wins 84% of the time. Not a big difference, but big enough to suggest that when you’re against a known strong hand, or even just a suspected strong hand you might want to steer clear of the offsuit Aces, even hands as strong as AQo might be suspect.
What to play when you put the other guy in the top 5% and he’s playing the distribution that doesn’t include AQo but does include pairs as low as 77?
Playing any pair against that distribution is a loser, winning only about 45% of the time.
Because he’s playing strong pairs, you don’t want to get involved with some of the more hopeless pairs. Playing only the same pairs he does (77+) puts you at about 56% winning.
But since he’s playing other hands than pairs you can include pairs smaller than the pairs he plays, just not all of them.
Against a distribution of hands
77+
AKs AKo
Here’s how you’ll do calling with various pairs
44+ 48.7%
55+ 50.6%
66+ 53%
When against any kind of strength, think about staying away from those little pairs, 22, 33, 44 aren’t likely to be winners.
No starting hand is a favorite to beat nine other players. Not a single one. Pocket aces has about a 30% chance of prevailing against a field of 9 random opposing hands.
Of course getting 9-1 on a 30% proposition is a money winner, a very good money winner, but most of the time it’s going to be a loser.
As the field narrows the win percentage of AA grows a lot. According to Poker Stove it will win 85% of the time against a player who plays the top 20% of his hands.
But when Poker Stove says top 20% it means in terms of win percentage against a random hand. That includes things like A9o and A4s, which aren’t considered power houses against someone who’s shown strength or might show strength. Players who’ll call in early position limper with 20% of their hands aren’t likely to be playing A9o.
Here’s the top 20% against a random hand
AA KK QQ JJ TT 99 88 77 66
A9o ATo AJo AQo AKo
KTo KJo KQo
QTo QJo
JTo
T9s
J9s JTs
Q9s QTs QJs
K8s K9s KTs KJs KQs
A4s A5s A6s A7s A9s ATs AJs AQs AKs
What’s the top 20% against a strong hand? First you have to define what we mean by strong hand.
How about the top 5%? The top 5% against a random hand are AA KK QQ JJ TT AKs AKo AQo
I think everybody will agree that’s a collection of strong hands. Some might quibble on the margin, arguing for inclusion of 99 and 88 77 instead of AQo. There are more combinations of AQo than 99, so to replace the same number of hands that are removed by taking AQo out of the mix you need to go as deep as 77.
Against the top 5% that includes AQs AA wins 84.4% percent of the time. But against the top 5% that includes the middle pairs AA wins 84% of the time. Not a big difference, but big enough to suggest that when you’re against a known strong hand, or even just a suspected strong hand you might want to steer clear of the offsuit Aces, even hands as strong as AQo might be suspect.
What to play when you put the other guy in the top 5% and he’s playing the distribution that doesn’t include AQo but does include pairs as low as 77?
Playing any pair against that distribution is a loser, winning only about 45% of the time.
Because he’s playing strong pairs, you don’t want to get involved with some of the more hopeless pairs. Playing only the same pairs he does (77+) puts you at about 56% winning.
But since he’s playing other hands than pairs you can include pairs smaller than the pairs he plays, just not all of them.
Against a distribution of hands
77+
AKs AKo
Here’s how you’ll do calling with various pairs
44+ 48.7%
55+ 50.6%
66+ 53%
When against any kind of strength, think about staying away from those little pairs, 22, 33, 44 aren’t likely to be winners.
Labels: all in match ups, poker stove, risk
posted by Gary Carson at 6:49 PM
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