More on overplaying a pair
I fell in love with JJ yesterday in a 1/2 game and lost about $90 that I should not have lost.
I raised pre-flop, I think I made it $7 first in. One caller, he was in front of me, in one of the blinds.
The flop is 742, all black, my jacks are red. My caller bets into me, bets $10.
This is where I made my first mistake. I raised, making it $40. That was a huge mistake.
Why would I raise here? Yes, I think I probably have the best hand, but even if I do he's going to have outs. He probably doesn't have a 7, with a 7 he'd fear a bigger pair from me and check/call. He is more likely to have a flush draw or even a 35 for a straight draw. Should I raise to "charge him" for his draw. Well, if I know for sure that's what he has, then yes. But, what if he doesn't have a draw. Well, if he has a set of 7's or 4's or some such thing then I'm really in bad shape.
A much, much smarter way to play this hand is just call and see what happens on the turn.
What happened was a Qc falls, putting 3 clubs on the board and he fires right out with $30. Did I fold? Not me. Once I make one mistake I dig in my heels and try to make as many mistakes as I can. I call. I call again when a blank falls on the river and he bets another $30.
What I should have done was call the flop and fold the turn. He had 4c5c.
Probably ahead isn't good enough. Even if you're sure enough that you're ahead to make a raise an action with positive expected value it's not enough. You need to think you're probably ahead plus have some kind of extra protection in case you aren't. Even something as little as having the Jc in my hand might have been enough to feel a little more comfortable with the hand.
Whenever I make that kind of rookie mistake I just cash out and go take a nap. Which is what I did after this hand.
I raised pre-flop, I think I made it $7 first in. One caller, he was in front of me, in one of the blinds.
The flop is 742, all black, my jacks are red. My caller bets into me, bets $10.
This is where I made my first mistake. I raised, making it $40. That was a huge mistake.
Why would I raise here? Yes, I think I probably have the best hand, but even if I do he's going to have outs. He probably doesn't have a 7, with a 7 he'd fear a bigger pair from me and check/call. He is more likely to have a flush draw or even a 35 for a straight draw. Should I raise to "charge him" for his draw. Well, if I know for sure that's what he has, then yes. But, what if he doesn't have a draw. Well, if he has a set of 7's or 4's or some such thing then I'm really in bad shape.
A much, much smarter way to play this hand is just call and see what happens on the turn.
What happened was a Qc falls, putting 3 clubs on the board and he fires right out with $30. Did I fold? Not me. Once I make one mistake I dig in my heels and try to make as many mistakes as I can. I call. I call again when a blank falls on the river and he bets another $30.
What I should have done was call the flop and fold the turn. He had 4c5c.
Probably ahead isn't good enough. Even if you're sure enough that you're ahead to make a raise an action with positive expected value it's not enough. You need to think you're probably ahead plus have some kind of extra protection in case you aren't. Even something as little as having the Jc in my hand might have been enough to feel a little more comfortable with the hand.
Whenever I make that kind of rookie mistake I just cash out and go take a nap. Which is what I did after this hand.
Labels: top pair
posted by Gary Carson at 5:06 PM
4 Comments:
This is just results-oriented thinking of the worst kind. You can't just put him on a set. What are you doing on a nonclub turn? Folding if he bets? Calling turn and river just in case? Neither seems a very good idea. And dude, didn't you have a read on the guy? Not many players will bet a set into a preflop raiser like that, particularly not on a raggy flop that they can be pretty sure you'll cbet on.
I notice that I routinely start waiting until the turn to play a hand strongly. I guess this is how a lot of experts play. If I figure my opponent is
1. On some type of draw
2. Calling no matter what
Might as well get a clue into how the hand is going to turn out.
To Zen.
I don't think he has a set. In fact I doubt he does, for the reasons you mention.
But he still might. And in the off chance he does, me raising on the flop just sets myself up for a problem. I don't really want to put all my chips in here with an overpair only. Not with that flop. Raising risks that.
Part of the idea of dodging bullets is not avoid loading his gun for him.
On a non-club turn of course I'm calling -- I'll likely raise if it's not an overcard to my pair. I'm not going to through away the hand because he might have a set. But the risk of a set is enough to make it a good idea to avoid getting all excited until that non-club on the turn.
On the flop if he's just got an Ace high flush draw he's got 12 outs, I'm really only a small favorite if he's betting a flush draw.
With the exact cards he had he's actually a small favorite on the flop.
Raising on the flop when I think he has a draw just isn't smart when I'm at best a small favorite. I'm a big favorite against a 7, but will he call with a 7? And I actually don't think he has a 7.
The combined chance of him having a flush draw plus something like an overcard, a pair, or a backdoor straight draw just doesn't make me a huge favorite, and in the off chance he does have a set I"m screwed.
I should have kept the pot small until the turn where I become a large favorite if the right card hits.
If I'd have done that I'd have still lost more chips when the Qc hit the turn, but the smaller pot would have meant smaller calls, less of a loss.
Gary, I understand your analysis, but I find it hard to agree with. You induced a mistake on the flop and he got lucky on you on the turn. Easy fold on the turn, of course, but I like your flop action. Still, the next time I go broke with JJ on a raggy flop won't be the first time, so I can't be too critical of your play!
Post a Comment
<< Home