Monday, May 07, 2007

Flopping a straight

Flopping a straight can sometimes be problematic. It's not always clear how strong that hand is, straights can be pretty iffy hand, vulnerable when they're getting action.

You just never can be sure. If you're getting heavy action it might be from two pair, which tends to happen often when a potential straight is on the board because of players playing suited connectors. If that's the case you're in good shape, they're drawing pretty thin. But flush draws and draws to better straights aren't drawing quite so thin.

There was a hand discussed on rgp a while back that I think illustrates some of the problems that can crop up with flopped straights. Not so much in terms of how the hand actually played out, but in terms of the things you need to think about with such hands.

It was a 2/5 game, with most stacks about $500, one aggresive player had about $1,000. This hand put that big stack in mid position. He opened for $20, one caller, our hero has a T9 of spades and calls from late position. The button and the big blind call after him.

I think the preflop call is pretty automatic. If the stacks had been shorter it's a pretty easy fold. I think a raise is out of the question here.

JD,8C,7H

It's checked to the original raiser, who bets $25 into an $80 pot. What the hell is that all about? Our hero makes a minimum raise, the other two guys fold back to the original raiser who calls.

I don't know what's going on here. I'd have just called the flop or made a more substantial raise. Our hero said he made the small raise as an attempt to fish for a
re-raise. I don't like fishing for a re-raise when it's not clear whether anybody actually has a hand to re-raise with or not. The $25 bet by the aggressor doesn't look like a big hand to me, not with that flop. It looks like AK to me (but things always look like AK to me).

I like calling here. I think you're going to be more likely to get an overcall by a call than a re-raise by a weenie raise. With my hand and this flop I don't really mind continuing on to the turn with players behind me, I don't feel any need to raise to by myself the button or anything.

If the flop had been two-suited I'd be thinking very differently. I don't like just calling unless I'm fishing for an overcall. I also don't like just calling when somebody might be drawing to a flush.

A 10D hit the turn, possibly counterfieting the straight, possibly giving an AK a flush draw, possibly giving the other guy a better straight, although that's somewhat unlikely.

The hands that I might put the original raiser on that are helped by that TD are AKD, 9 9 or 10 10. I think it's real doubtful he has Q 9, so I'll only worry about that hand a little bit. If the turn card had been a 9D I'd worry a little about a Q 10, but I'm just not going to worry about the Q 9.75

The anti-hero checks. At this point our hero bets $75. He commented that his after thought is that $75 is a terrible bet. I'm not so sure it's terrible. I made have bet a little more, but I think I'd want a call here. I like our hero's hand at this point. Although he's a little more vulnarable after that ten fell than he had been on the flop, I don't see any reason to not think he doesn't still have the best. There are some possible scare cards on the river -- cards like a jack, a nine, or a diamond might slow me down quite a bit, but the most likely river card doesn't include any of those cards. He said he made the bet out of fear, but I don't know what he's afraid of. The anti-hero calls quickly.

The river brings 3D, putting three diamonds on the board. The anti-hero moves all in -- our hero has $350 left, getting about 5/2 on a call.

I think he has to call here. The anti-hero can't put him on a backdoor flush draw so has to think the hero will worry about a flush when he goes all-in on that river card. He could very well be overplaying an overpair here, hoping the hero will lay down two pair.

He did call, the anti-hero had 4D 5D for the flush.

I wouldn't have put him on that specific hand.

Should the hero have bet more on the turn? I think a little more, I'd probbably have bet more like $120, maybe even $175. But I don't think it would have changed the outcome. I think he'd have been called unless he made a huge overbet on the turn. And, I don't see any strong reason to do that, he's ahead enough on the turn that I just don't see the problem with betting as much as you think the anti-hero will call.

But, then again, I'm writing for a living, not making TV appearances, so what do I know?

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1 Comments:

Blogger DMW said...

Whenever I get rivered in nlhe I usually ask "should I have bet more on the turn?" It must be a common feeling.

So he bet 75 into a 135$ pot? Doesn't seem like an underbet to me.

3:45 PM  

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