Sunday, September 09, 2007

The 80/20 rule

Wayne Vinson doesn't think much of my blog. In a comment on a previous post he says
Well, good for you to man up and admit you were wrong. Now you need to tackle about 80% of the rest of this site, because your errors are rampant, not localized.

I'm not so sure that 80% of what I say is wrong. But, even if it is, does that actually mean anything? I don't think it does.

The old 80/20 standard says that 80% of the value comes from 20% of the information. What that means is that the stuff I'm wrong about is likely stuff where being wrong doesn't cost much, where the difference between right and wrong is small. But the stuff I'm right about is stuff where it matters, and it's also not superficially obvious.

So it could well be that even if I'm wrong 80% of the time my thoughts have more value than someone else who's only wrong 20% of the time. It just depends on which 80% and which 20%.

It would be helpful if Wayne offered more information about which 80% I'm wrong about. Maybe he'll do that.

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