Going broke with top pair
It was a 1/2 blind NL HE game with a $200 cap on the buyin. I don't usually by in for the max until I've been at the table a while. I bought in for $100 and lost a little. I had a little over $70 when this hand arose.
Six players at the table, a limp in front of me, I limp in the cutoff with QcJc, button calls, the big blind makes it $12. I don't really want to go up againswt a raise with this hand, but the player in front of me calls, so I go ahead and call, the button calls.
Flop is Qs 8c 3c. Top pair and a flush draw. Even a back door straight gut-shot.
Check-Check. I'm surprised at the check from the raiser. Doesn't seem normal. I'm suspecting a big hand of some sort. I'm thinking maybe AQ or AA. But maybe not. If he has me beat I have a flush draw. If he has a better draw then I have the best hand. Maybe he's got neither, maybe I have the best hand and he doesn't have a draw.
Anyway, the pot is almost $50 and I have a little over $60, so I just go allin. Button folds. He quickly moves allin for a total of about $100, the guy between us folds. Now I think I'm beat.
I turn over my hand. He doesn't. He's mister slowroll. But I'm still okay with my hand. I think he has an over-pair so I probably have about 15 outs, so I'm actually not beat.
Turn is a queen, river makes me a flush, he had flopped a set of 8's, his fullhouse wins.
Even against the worst case scenario I had 9 outs, after considering his redraw I had about 6 effective outs against a set. That's not great but it's only about a 3 to 1 dog at worst.
That's a key for considering whether a top pair is worth going broke with. Do you know you aren't drawing dead and at least have a few (more than 2 or 3) live outs? If so you have a lot more than top pair.
Labels: top pair